Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Sub-Timeline 2a: When Cecil met Karen Part 2

Video Explanation Below

Last time, we did the first juxtaposition of Sub-Timelines 1a and 1b, resulting in Sub-Timeline 2.  This post will further the analysis by adding in the actual clock/times.

According to her interview, Karen (Witness A) took a trip from her job in Haverhill to Beaver Pond on the night in question.  She did not indicate that she stopped anywhere other than at the Accident Site for a few minutes before heading to Beaver Pond. Similarly, we know about how long Cecil was on roads overlapping with Karen's trip.

Logically, this gives a reasonably specific range of time frames for how long the trip would have taken.  This range is in the 28-35 minute range for Karen's trip, and 8-12 minutes for Cecil.  These ranges were chosen as a result using Google Maps along with a margin of error for unknowns like acceleration/deceleration, did she pull off to let Cecil by, did Cecil blow through the intersections, etc.

So this left us with a timeline like this (Microsoft Excel VersionFull Google Sheet):



For our first "on the clock" example, let us have Karen leave 6 Church St at 19:17.  Note that the time on the left is now also applicable to Cecil (Microsoft Excel VersionFull Google Sheet):



Obviously, this is not a realistic time for Cecil because he was not even dispatched until 19:29 according to the Grafton County Sheriff Logs.  Let's move the timeline to reflect his arrival at the time Karen suggested, 19:36 (Microsoft Excel VersionFull Google Sheet):


I encourage you to consider what this means.  I am working on a way to adjust for margins of error.


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