Maura Murray Disappearance: Understanding my Assessment

I have been discussing my efforts on Reddit and I have repeatedly run into instances where people seem to misunderstand my position and purpose at this time.  I am not here to declare any of these stories true or false at this time.  One in particular issue I have run into is my assessment of the Karen (Witness A) sightings.  With these sightings I have made statements based on what the timelines themselves could mean, not what they do.

What seems to be misunderstood here is that proponents of this story seem to miss the probability issue here.  I am not talking about the probability of Karen's story being true or false or whether I or others should believe it.  I am referring only to the fact that seeing a vehicle at three points that are taking different routes an different speeds within certain time periods shouldn't be taken as a forgone conclusion without analysis.  There are tight constraints on that possibility.

In an effort to drive that point home, here are two simple incremental representations of a timeline.  The first two rows are one scenario, the blue being one driver, the other a second.  The areas of green show where they would have overlapped.  The second two rows are the same timeline shifted a few intervals one way -- notice how different the overlaps are.  This is what I wanted to analyze -- that these overlaps were possible given the parameters that we have, independently of anybody's story.

I found that there are about three 30 second intervals during the time that this story played out that this was possible.  A few 30 second intervals that allow for these events to EVEN BE POSSIBLE in a 30 minute drive are not high probability!

I am going to review other components of my Timeline 2a conclusions next.